首页 > 资讯中心 > 独家专题 > 【中国淀粉工业协会&卓创资讯】联合发布节后淀粉及淀粉糖行业运行状况调研报告
【中国淀粉工业协会&卓创资讯】联合发布节后淀粉及淀粉糖行业运行状况调研报告
来源:卓创资讯 发布时间:2020-03-04<p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>谁无暴风劲雨时,守得云开见月明</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">为深入贯彻落实关于坚决打赢疫情防控阻击战的重要指示精神,和党中央、国务院关于在做好疫情防控工作同时统筹抓好“六稳”工作的有关决策部署,帮助广大中小企业坚定信心,强化措施,实现有序复工复产,渡过难关。中国淀粉工业协会与卓创资讯在2020年2月下旬,对玉米加工相关企业进行了一轮关于复工复产的电话调研工作,客观反映国内淀粉及<a href="http://sugar.sci99.com/channel/othersugar/" target="_blank" class="c_anchor" style="color: rgb(51, 102, 170); text-decoration-line: underline; outline: none;">淀粉糖</a>各相关企业目前的运行情况,并提供风险研判,为企业复工复产提供有效的决策参考。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">通过此次电话调研发现,当前企业一手抓疫情防控,一手抓复工复产,有序推进企业复工复产,努力把疫情带来的不利影响降到最低,全力以赴保持生产经营稳定运行。调研数据显示,当前70%的企业已经恢复运营,多数企业生产线开工负荷恢复至50%左右,基本能保证市场货源供应和流通。但下游复工进度慢,工厂订单不足、仓成品库存压力大、成本和资金压力加重、各类原料的供给不稳定与库存不足、人员到岗受限、企业复工需要配置防护用品不足等仍是企业在复工面临的普遍问题。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>一、&nbsp;</strong><strong>电话调研问卷样本情况</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">此次电话调研样本共计113家淀粉与淀粉糖行业企业,其中国营与私(民)营企业各占比分别为13%和80%;外资及其他类型企业占比在7%。从区域分布上,涵盖了全国24个省市,主要集中于山东、河北、河南、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、江苏、上海、广东、浙江、湖北省、陕西省以及重庆等省市。(详见下图)</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281028016055.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 450px; height: 270px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>图1</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281028168174.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 450px; height: 270px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>图2</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">二、<strong>此次疫情对于企业的影响程度</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281029167315.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 450px; height: 270px;"></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>图3</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">据本次调研结果显示,70%企业表示此次突发公共卫生事件对淀粉及淀粉糖生产与流通环节造成了 “中度”的影响,11%企业表示受到了“严重”的影响。仅有19%的企业表示受到的影响轻微。</span></span></p><table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" style="color: rgb(46, 46, 46); font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; width: 665.6px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="5" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">影响程度描述</span></strong></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;">&nbsp;</td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">订单与销售量</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">产量</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">营业收入</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业利润</span></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">严重影响</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">订单与销售量下滑超30%。</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">产量下滑超50%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业营业收入下滑超30%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业利润受损超50%</span></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">中度影响</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">订单与销售量下滑在10-30%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">产量下滑在10%-50%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业营业收入下滑10-30%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业利润受损在10%-40%</span></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">轻微影响</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">订单与销售量下滑5%以内</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">产量下滑在10%以内</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业营业收入下滑在10%以内</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业利润受损在10%以内</span></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">无影响</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">订单与销售量与去年同期持平</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">产量与同期持平</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业营业收入与同期持平</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(25, 25, 25);">企业利润与同期持平</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">三、<strong>目前在复工复产中面临的主要问题</strong></span></span></div><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">在调研过程中发现目前企业在复产复工过程中遇到的主要问题包括以下几个方面:</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281040585043.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 670px; height: 229px; float: left;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>四、目前企业面临的主要困难有哪些</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">通过电话调研发现,目前大部分企业担心企业复工之后供应压力逐步凸显,但下游终端需求恢复进度慢于供应端,下游市场需求低迷,订单量不足。其次以春节期间与疫情期间遗留的高库存问题短期内无法消化,部分春节前已接订单受疫情影响执行速度偏慢。可能将会影响企业的效益以及定价策略,竞价销售会加重恶化市场环境。从电话调研的情况来看,其中70%以上的企业对于下游需求复工进度慢,工厂订单不足与仓容不足成品库存压力大这两个问题表示担忧。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">其次成本和资金压力加重、各类原料的供给不稳定与库存不足这两个问题在中小型企业中表现较为明显。关于人员到岗受限与企业复工需要配置防护用品不足这两个问题,企业表示也存在但基本都可以通过相关部门协调能够解决,与前四个问题相比,在销售端与生产端影响相对较小。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>五、目前淀粉与淀粉糖企业复工复产情况</strong></span></span></p><table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" style="color: rgb(46, 46, 46); font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; width: 665.6px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>2020年2月10日-26日<a href="http://starch.sci99.com/channel/starch/" target="_blank" class="c_anchor" style="color: rgb(51, 102, 170); text-decoration-line: underline; outline: none;">玉米淀粉</a>与淀粉糖开工情况统计</strong></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">日期 </span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">玉米淀粉</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">结晶葡萄糖</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">麦芽糖浆</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">F55果葡糖浆</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">麦芽糊精</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2020/2/10(当周)</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">28.99%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">29.70%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">12.71%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">18.76%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">32.74%</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2020/2/17(当周)</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">40.13%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">28.43%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">11.11%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">26.46%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">31.77%</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2020/2/26(当周)</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">50.32%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">31.42%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">12.10%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">25.93%</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">39.12%</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">环比</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">10.19%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">2.99%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">0.99%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(0, 176, 80);">-0.53%</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">7.35%</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281029441508.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 450px; height: 270px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>图4</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">通过电话调研数据发现,因原材料供给与物流运输受阻、防控形势紧张以及行业库存高位等因素影响,2月10日当周玉米淀粉行业开工率降至近年来新低,多数企业计划复工推迟至2月17日至2月20日以后。自2月17日之后,随着物流运输的好转及各类原材料补给恢复正常,玉米淀粉行业复工复产速度明显加快,数据显示截至2月26日,玉米淀粉行业开工率为50.32%,环比上周增加10.19%,与2月10日当周相比增加21.33%。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><img alt="" src="https://img.sciimg.com/images/0/202002/202002281030026670.png" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 450px; height: 270px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>图5</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">通过调研发现,淀粉糖行业节后受原料供应不足,物流运输不畅,加之突发事件影响,开工率出现明显下滑,创近几年来的低点。虽然近两周政府鼓励复工复产,但下游饮料、啤酒、糖果及食品行业复工进度缓慢的影响下,企业销售压力较大,目前已经复产企业开工维持在较低水平,甚至部分企业进入停产销库状态。截至2月26日,淀粉糖行业开工率为21%,与2月10日当周相比仅增加1.4%。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong style="text-align: center;">六、</strong><strong style="text-align: center;">企业目前成品库存积压状态</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-align: right;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">单位:吨</span></span></p><table align="center" border="1" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" style="color: rgb(46, 46, 46); font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; width: 665.6px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="6" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>2020年春节前与当前企业玉米淀粉与淀粉糖库存情况统计</strong></span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"> 日期</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">玉米淀粉</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">结晶葡萄糖</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">麦芽糖浆</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">F55果葡糖浆</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">麦芽糊精</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2020/1/23(当周)</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">635800</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">161300</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">96300</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">84950</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">31000</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2020/2/27(当周)</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">880900</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">200200</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">73700</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">79350</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">39700</span></span></td></tr><tr><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">环比</span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">245100</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">38900</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(0, 176, 80);">-22600</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: rgb(0, 176, 80);">-5600</span></span></span></td><td style="margin: 0px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 14px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: red;">8700</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">据卓创资讯调研数据显示,截止2月27日当周行业库存量与春节前库存量相比增幅明显,库存累积主要集中在物流发货不畅地区及部分春节期间正常生产的大中型企业。当前下游市场复工进度在四成左右,终端需求恢复进度偏慢,除医药及民生行业消费保持尚可之外,其他行业如食品以及啤酒饮料、<a href="http://starch.sci99.com/channel/destarch/" target="_blank" class="c_anchor" style="color: rgb(51, 102, 170); text-decoration-line: underline; outline: none;">变性淀粉</a>类非民生的终端企业,多以延迟复工为主。造纸类需求复工进度有所加速,但仅限于一些大的生产企业,预计进入3月份之后各地下游需求有望加速复工。目前行业库存主要集中在生产端,下游渠道与终端行业库存非常低。据调研数据显示,目前玉米淀粉行业库存为88.09万吨,与1月23日当周相比增加24.51万吨,高库存现象较为严重。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">淀粉糖方面,不同品类库存略有差异。其中结晶葡萄糖与麦芽糊精由于其粉体性质,容易储藏,春节期间企业生产货源基本入库。节后归来,由于下游启动缓慢,节日期间生产货源难以消耗,行业库存增幅明显。麦芽糖浆与果葡糖浆,由于春节期间下游中小型食品厂、糖果、啤酒及饮料企业停工企业较多,消费量下降。多数生产企业主动降低生产负荷,控制库存量,导致库存出现下滑。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>七、&nbsp;</strong><strong>企业对于二季度市场的判断与看法</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">1、下游需求短期内很难出现快速的恢复,部分市场人士预计下游需求恢复至50%以上或将出现在3月中旬之后。3月份上旬下游会出现一波集中复工潮,但需求提量在3月中旬之后才会显现。2月份由于春节假期叠加疫情影响导致需求降至冰点,后期下游消费会逐步提升。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2、关于原料玉米市场,要结合目前养殖的情况来判断,2月份禽类市场遭受重创,禽料中玉米消费量下降,对于目前饲用玉米的需求产生一定影响。在目前基层玉米购销仍未大面积展开的情况下,基层市场供售粮压力偏大。虽然目前贸易渠道环节、深加工行业及饲料行业玉米库存偏低,刚性补库的需求有一定支持,但短期在养殖需求未明显起色之前,玉米市场供应压力偏大,整体对于玉米的判断或出现近弱远强的走势。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">3、关于玉米淀粉走势,短期在快速恢复的供应压力与高库存的压制下,行情很难出现明显反转,需要重新测试前期下方的支撑位置,下游在未出现明显大规模复工的情况下,短期供强需弱的矛盾会持续一段时间。但考虑到目前渠道与下游终端库存偏低,下游复工之后对于原料采购的需求仍是不容忽视的支撑。整体对于玉米淀粉的判断也将出现近弱远强的走势,但需要时刻关注疫情防控的最新变化。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>八、&nbsp;</strong><strong>企业对于目前行业的建议</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">1、部分企业建议,在目前严峻的内外环境下希望企业尽可能保持合理的开工率,逐渐降低前期商品库存积压,避免出现通过价格无序竞争,竞价销售只会进一步恶化市场环境。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2、同时企业还建议在税费政策上进行阶段性的“减免退”等相关政策,对符合条件的当地龙头企业进行扶持。建议政策引导金融机构对企业提供金融支持,缓解企业在成本及资金链压力。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;"><strong>九、&nbsp;</strong><strong>中国淀粉工业协会与卓创资讯对于市场的建议与看法</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">1、针对短期内供应恢复速度快,而下游需求复工进度缓慢的情况,建议企业尽可能保持合理的开工率,逐渐降低前期商品库存积压,提高现金流管理效率。避免出现通过价格无序竞争,影响企业的效益以及定价策略,竞价销售只会进一步恶化市场环境。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">2、生产企业重视贸易环节蓄水池的作用,通过贸易环节自发调节淀粉供应与流通的量。现阶段处于特殊时期,面对严峻市场形势,生产企业与贸易环节的功能不应该被弱化,双方应主动加强合作,灵活制定针对贸易环节的销售策略。积极发挥蓄水池的作用,让双方进入良性循环。</span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">3、生产企业与下游的终端企业建立和谐、战略合作关系,增加重点战略客户服务资源,建立新型的厂商合作模式,加强与下游企业沟通,保障商品高效供应与配送。在长期稳定合作的基础上,发挥企业信用的作用,在条件允许的情况下,考虑延长提货周期、灵活调整发货方式等手段,共克时艰。 </span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); text-indent: 2em;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 宋体;">4、理性看待高库存的问题,经历了2019年上半年高库存之痛,2020年从下游-渠道-上游工厂各个环节会重新理性看待库存问题,库存会出现小周期的变化。当前原料玉米库存与去年同期出现明显下滑,成品淀粉库存与去年同期基本持平,在这种背景下应该合理提高玉米储备库存,分批次降低淀粉库存。</span></span></p>
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